可行能力视角下农户参与农地整理规划的意愿与影响检验——基于安徽寿县4个典型镇的实证分析

[目的]提升农户参与的意愿与探寻有效参与机制。[方法]文章以安徽省寿县4个典型镇的147户农户与4个项目为调查对象,从农户的可行能力视角出发,运用Logistic模型研究农户参与农地整理规划意愿的驱动因素,运用ArcGIS10.0的空间分析功能检验农户参与对规划的影响。[结果]非农业收入比例、农地整理政策了解度、排灌沟渠布局、田间道路密度及公众参与机制等5类因素有显著推动作用;对规划的影响表现在较大程度优化了规划方案,提高了农地生产率等,但耕作田块扩大效应不显著、排灌沟渠存在空间集聚现象、偏好生产路建设及轻视田间林网工程建设等弊端制约了农业规模化经营、忽视规划全局性与环境效应等。[结论]可通过强化农地整理政策宣传力度、完善引导农户式的公众参与机制及基于农户可行能力视角构建农地整理规划效果的衡量尺度以提升农户参与的意愿与探寻有效参与机制。     

Establishing the validity of cycle path capacity assumptions in the Highway Capacity Manual

Cycle mode share increase is widely desired, but highway design practitioners lack the numerical tools to deliver infrastructure, instead relying on design standards and intuition, with little literature basis. As a case in point, the US Highway Capacity Manual (which is well used internationally) has developed levels of service for cycle infrastructure that are, at their core, based on an assumption of noninteraction between multiple cyclists. This paper uses a modified implementation of the Social Force Model to test the validity of this assumption. Necessary changes such as the consideration of acceleration characteristics and minimum maintainable speed are included. The resulting model produces valid outcomes in keeping with established traffic flow properties, reflecting three-phase traffic flow theory and the ability for the stochastic elements in traffic flow to cause flow breakdown. The developed simulation indicates that there is a fundamental difference in outcome if cyclists are assumed to have a fixed speed versus one they can change given their surroundings. This difference in outcomes is found to exist within the range of literature design flow capacities for bicycle infrastructure and also yields emergent outcomes that align closely with those known behaviors of highway vehicles, which intuitively transfer to cyclists. These findings reinforce the standing need for large-scale empirical studies to determine the basic numerical and behavioral parameters for cyclists, upon which all design ultimately rests.     

Is Part-Time Employment after Childbirth a Stepping-Stone into Full-Time Work? A Cohort Study for East and West Germany

Does part-time work support first-time mothers’ employment by providing a stepping-stone into full-time work in Germany? Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel from 1984–2012, this study compares three different age cohorts of first-time East and West German mothers to investigate whether there has been any convergence between East and West Germany in the way women use part-time employment. Results show that mothers in West Germany in all cohorts tended to remain in part-time employment for longer periods than those in East Germany. Part-time employment more often provided a stepping-stone into full-time employment in East Germany than in West Germany. East German women who gave birth after reunification were less likely than older cohorts to experience a transition from part-time to full-time work. Thus, part-time employment not followed by subsequent full-time work has become more common in the East.     

Creating Opportunities for Women in the Renewable Energy Sector: Findings from India

This paper identifies opportunities and constraints that low-income women face in accessing livelihoods in the renewable-energy sector in India through qualitative and quantitative research conducted in collaboration with The Energy Resources Institute (TERI) and the Self Employed Women's Association (SEWA) in 2012–13. Whereas previous research has focused on women mostly as end users of solar and biomass technologies, this research attempts also to understand women's potential as entrepreneurs, facilitators, designers, and innovators. Findings reveal that although access to technology and employment in the energy sector is limited by inadequate purchasing power and low social status, there is tremendous potential to create livelihoods for women at all levels of the energy supply chain. Broader findings indicate that women can gain optimal traction from employment in the energy sector only if there are wider socially progressive policies in place, including state intervention to create a robust social welfare infrastructure and accessible, high-quality, public services.     

需求侧、供给侧视角下中国经济增长动力转换实证研究

为找出中国经济持续高速增长背后的驱动因素，了解增长动力的演变规律，本文基于投入产出模型，从最终需求的角度解析消费、投资和出口对经济拉动作用的动态变化；同时运用DEA方法，从要素供给角度分析中国各地区劳动、资本和TFP对经济增长的贡献，结合需求侧和供给侧的双重角度，探讨经济增长的动力转换特征和问题。结果表明，中国经济增长的需求动力来源由前期的消费转变为出口后，近年来又转变为投资，而资本要素一直是中国各省市增长的主要要素驱动力。中国的经济增长正处在投资主导阶段，经济快速增长的背后伴随着效率下降等问题。     

Dynamics of female labour force participation in France

This article formulates and estimates a structural intertemporal model of labour force participation. Relying on theoretical characterizations derived from an economic model of lifetime behaviour, we estimate a dynamic probit model with correlated random effects using longitudinal data to allow for a dynamic structure. The model is applied to a panel of married women drawn from the 1997–2002 French Labour Force surveys in order to represent their participation behaviour. It is estimated by maximum simulated likelihood. Our results show that women’s decisions to go out to work are characterized by significant state dependence, unobserved heterogeneity and negative serial correlation in the transitory error component. In addition, we find that the presence of young children in a woman’s household reduces her labour participation, but unequally according to their age and number. As expected, educational level has a positive impact on women’s participation. Last, a rise in the husband’s wage is found to raise female participation initially and to lower it subsequently. This empirical finding suggests that leisure may not systematically be a normal good, contrary to what is frequently assumed in the literature.     

农村电子商务发展与农村富余劳动力安置问题研究

随着中国城镇化进程不断推进,农村现代化加速运行,尤其是中国农村土地制度产生了重大的变革,中国农村需要面对的剩余劳动力转移与安置问题愈发严重。怎么将这些劳动力从农业转移到其它生产部门,在安置劳动力保证社会平稳过渡的同时,实现农村经济长期可持续发展,是我国在实现农业现代化与新型城市化中必须要解决的问题。文章为研究我国的富余劳动力安置问题,从中国农村土地流转改革与新型城镇化发展这一重要现实背景出发,分析目前与未来中国产生大量农村富余劳动力的转移安置与可持续发展的前景,在产业不断优化转移的大趋势下以农村电商的发展为突破口,从目前我国农村电子商务的现状、问题以及农村电商的发展出路进行了分析,得出农村电商将成为中国农村剩余劳动力的重要安置路径之一。     

基于AHP-DEMATEL的建设用地增长驱动因子重要性研究

近年来城市建设用地增长问题逐渐得到学术界的重视,建设用地增长驱动因子的甄别与影响力分析成为建设用地增长研究的一个重要领域。以传统决策试验与评价实验室方法(DEMATEL)为基础,提出了适合于驱动因子影响力识别的AHP-DEMATEL方法,分析驱动因子对建设用地增长影响的重要程度,获得驱动因子的重要性排序。研究结果发现,经济因素、社会因素和政府因素对建设用地增长的影响明显高于自然因素,政府因素在建设用地增长中扮演着至关重要的角色,GDP、人口和政府发展冲动是影响建设用地增长的关键驱动因子。     

交通因素对黄土丘陵沟壑区空心村变迁的影响分析

[目的]空心村的形成和发展受到众多因素的影响,包括经济因素、自然因素、社会因素、户籍和社保制度,以及管理和规划因素等。由于我国的自然地理和区域发展差异悬殊,不同地形区空心村发展的主要影响因素各不相同。文章探究在复杂地形条件下,交通因素对丘陵沟壑区空心村的产生和发展所产生的影响。[方法]以陕西省澄城县为例,通过实地调查、走访农户、搜集资料等方法,利用交通便利指数、交通距离指数等开展分析,综合考虑了道路崎岖程度、道路质量状况以及经济发展水平等,对研究区的农村空心化现象进行了研究。[结果]崎岖的道路极大地增加了居民的出行成本和时间,不利于农村的基础设施建设和发展;在当前的社会经济条件下,黄土丘陵沟壑区农村的交通便利程度与村庄空心化程度呈现一定的负相关性,即交通条件越好,村庄的空心化程度越低。[结论]在黄土丘陵沟壑区开展空心村整治工程时,可以优先考虑交通条件较差、相对偏远的地区。     

农村劳动力质量对规模农户生产效率影响研究

随着我国工业化与城镇化加速推进,农村领域大量劳动力以不同速度流向了非农产业,农村劳动力要素禀赋质量发生了巨大变化,农村劳动力要素禀赋质量的异质性对规模农户粮食生产效率的提高产生了深刻的影响。文章基于460户调查数据,运用Q型聚类方法将劳动力质量类型分为男性经验丰富型、女性经验丰富型、男性经验欠缺型、女性经验欠缺型四种类型,并利用随机前沿生产函数模型,计量检验了不同劳动力质量类型、劳动态度及劳动力市场发育等变量对家庭生产效率的影响。研究结果表明:男性经验丰富型与女性经验丰富型对家庭经济增长效率提升产生了显著的正效应,效应值分别为0.290、0.170,而男性经验欠缺型与女性经验欠缺型对生产效率提升产生了明显的负向影响,效应值分别为-0.110、-0.153,劳动态度、劳动力市场发育变量与家庭生产效率提升呈现了较强正、负相关性,效应值分别为0.590、-6.738。